For the most part, I am the voice of reason whenever my friends complain about slow offseasons, reassuring them with statements like, “Be patient,” “Stuff will happen,” “The dam will break.” Over the last week, though, I’ve become completely Jokerfied. After a slow seven days, I am now fully in the camp of believing that nothing happens, nothing ever will happen again, and spring training will open in a month with plenty of unsigned free agents. Anyway, now that that’s all out of my system and I can be a little more rational — a month is still a long time, the dam can break at any moment, etc. — it’s time to get into the updates with the Matrix.
Free Agent Signings
Blue Jays Sign Jeff Hoffman for Three Years, $33 Million
• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Blue Jays
By some measures, the Blue Jays had the league’s worst bullpen in 2024, with a bad 4.82 ERA and an even worse -2.5 WAR. For context, the Rockies had the only other bullpen in the negatives, and at -0.2 WAR, their relievers were still more than two wins better than Toronto’s group. Jordan Romano was mostly hurt, Erik Swanson was largely ineffective, and Tim Mayza followed up his great 2023 with an awful 2024 that led to his DFA and, ultimately, finishing out the season with the Yankees. Of the 28 relievers that the Jays used last year, fewer than half of them were replacement level or better. Sheesh!
Adding Hoffman to the mix goes a long way toward rectifying those wrongs. That said, it’s important to note that before he signed with the Blue Jays — the team that drafted him ninth overall in 2014 and dealt him to the Rockies a year later in the Troy Tulowitzki trade — Hoffman had previously agreed to terms with the Braves and Orioles. However, those deals fell through because his physical revealed a potential problem with his shoulder. Understandably, Hoffman later described his shoulder as a “non-issue” during a conference call with reporters — what else is he supposed to say? — but there are reasons to believe that the state of his shoulder isn’t that bad. The Orioles attempted to sign Hoffman to a revised contract “based on their assessed risk from the physical,” according to Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner, and his deal with the Jays ended up being the same as his median contract prediction on the Total Spending Projection tab. He’s lined up to be Toronto’s closer, with Chad Green, Yimi García, and Swanson — who did pitch much better after a stint in the minors — setting him up.
Effect on Other Teams
While it hasn’t been explicitly reported, it seems that the Orioles were planning to use Hoffman as a reliever, since their countermove after his unsuccessful physical was to sign Andrew Kittredge to help set up for returning closer Félix Bautista.
The Braves, however, were evidently set to deploy Hoffman as a starting pitcher, a role he hasn’t had since 2021 but one that multiple teams targeted him to fill.
Instead, the Braves will have to look elsewhere on the market for a starter. The deal in place with Hoffman was for five years and somewhere in the $45–$48 million range. If they’re not comfortable spending more than $9–$10 million per year on a starter, they certainly won’t be able to land Jack Flaherty or Nick Pivetta, and probably not even Max Scherzer. That would leave them in the market for veterans like Jose Quintana, Lance Lynn, Andrew Heaney, and Kyle Gibson.
Effect on Similar Players
That Hoffman secured a deal right in line with expectations despite his injury concerns is good news for the slew of relievers still on the market, namely Carlos Estévez (median prediction of three years, $30 million) and Tanner Scott (four years, $54 million).
Mets Sign A.J. Minter for Two Years, $22 Million
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Mets
For the second straight offseason, the Mets were tasked with rebuilding their bullpen, with Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Drew Smith, and Brooks Raley hitting the free agent market this time around after meaningful contributions to the club last year. With Danny Young penciled in as their top lefty reliever, getting another southpaw made sense: Enter Minter, who pitched only 34 1/3 innings last year before hip surgery but has a long track record of solid setup work.
The one drawback to the Mets’ bullpen is its lack of fungibility: Minter is one of six relievers in their seven-man bullpen (we project them to use a six-man rotation), who can’t be optioned to the minors; Reed Garrett is the only exception, and he’s not going anywhere if he pitches like he did last year.
Effect on Other Teams
Minter’s signing might just unthaw the reliever market, at least from the left side. Teams looking for a high-leverage lefty can still sign Tanner Scott, but Minter was the clear second-best option, at least based on his reputation. Scott Alexander, Ryan Yarbrough, Tim Hill, and Andrew Chafin all have value, but they don’t bring the high-velocity upside of Minter.
Effect on Similar Players
To put it mildly, Minter did great. His median contract prediction was just one year and $7 million, so he cleared that by $15 million. Plus, he can opt out of the second year if he pitches well enough. That’s awesome news for Scott especially, who was leaps and bounds better than Minter in 2024 and could get triple Minter’s contract over four or five years. Minter’s $11M AAV should be the absolute minimum target for Carlos Estévez, Kirby Yates, and David Robertson, all of whom ended their seasons healthy and pitching well.
Mets Sign Jesse Winker for One Year, $7.5 Million
• Leo Morgenstern’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Mets
Pete Alonso isn’t officially gone yet, but it may be just a matter of time before he’s donning another uniform for the first time in his MLB career. Winker is no Alonso, but he’d certainly help to paper over that loss, though as it stands the Mets still could use one more bat. Winker can play a little bit of corner outfield if needed, but most of his time should come as a DH against righties, with Starling Marte starting against all lefties and some righties.
Effect on Other Teams
The most obvious question: Where will Alonso sign? Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported just before the Winker news broke that Alonso’s market is “heating up,” with three teams involved: the Mets, the Blue Jays, and an unnamed third team. Alonso isn’t an elegant fit for Toronto unless he’s willing to DH, since it would probably be managerial malpractice to play Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at third base for a full season. But considering Toronto’s desire to make another playoff push while Guerrero and Bo Bichette — who are set to hit free agency after this season — are still around, the Jays might feel a need to beef up their offense regardless of positional fit.
Effect on Similar Players
Max Kepler is the only other cheap lefty-hitting corner outfield option who’s signed this offseason, and he got $10 million from the Phillies, so Winker’s contract gives Alex Verdugo a range of $7.5–$10 million to target. Jason Heyward also fits the mold as a lefty-swinging outfielder who could platoon against righties, but at this point, he’s probably a tier below that trio, considering he was DFA’d last year by the Dodgers. My guess is he’ll sign for $5 million or less.
Cubs Sign Colin Rea for One Year, $5 Million
• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Cubs
The Cubs may not have a true top-of-the-rotation arm (though you could certainly make that argument about Shota Imanaga or Justin Steele), but what they do have in spades is depth. We’re currently projecting Rea as their sixth starter, behind Imanaga, Steele, Jameson Taillon, fellow new addition Matthew Boyd, and Javier Assad. Beyond those six, the Cubs also have Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Cody Poteet, and top prospect Cade Horton, who certainly has the potential to be the squad’s most dominant righty since Jake Arrieta at some point down the line.
Effect on Other Teams
Rea’s utility as a swingman would’ve been useful to any number of teams, but there are still swingmen aplenty on the market. Spencer Turnbull, Jakob Junis, José Ureña, and Ryan Yarbrough are all still looking for homes, and it’s possible someone who mostly started could end up taking a bullpen job, as Joe Ross did with the Phillies.
Effect on Similar Players
All of those aforementioned players should be looking to get somewhere between the $4 million Ross signed for and the $7 million Michael Lorenzen got from the Royals.
Mariners Sign Donovan Solano for One Year, $3.5 Million
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Mariners
Offense was the top item on Jerry Dipoto’s list entering the offseason; frankly, it was probably all the items. Solano isn’t a flashy name, and there’s not exactly room for growth at his age, but he’s a sneaky-good acquisition who’s never posted a wRC+ lower than 99 since his 2019 breakout with the Giants. He was above average once again in 2024 (118 wRC+) and was especially good against southpaws (124 wRC+). He’ll still get plenty of plate appearances against lefties, and he was also above average last season vs.
but the Mariners would be smart to add a platoon partner for Solano; Seattle is reportedly interested in Yoán Moncada.
Effect on Other Teams
Solano is a premier low-cost lefty-masher, but there are still options for teams in search of one. Jose Iglesias, Randal Grichuk, Kevin Pillar, Ramón Laureano, J.D. Martinez, Adam Duvall, and Mark Canha all had a wRC+ of at least 120 against lefties last year and should sign for less than $10 million per year. Pillar and Duvall seem likely to sign minor league deals.
Effect on Similar Players
Solano comes in at the Goldilocks cost of the above listed free agents; I would expect Iglesias, Grichuk, and Martinez to cost more, with the aforementioned Pillar and Duvall certainly available for less of a guarantee (if any guarantee at all) considering their ineptitude against righties. Canha and Laureano should be using Solano’s $3.5 million as a guidepost.
Nationals Sign Jorge López for One Year, $3 Million
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Nationals
For now, it looks as if López will headline a revamped Nationals bullpen that since the trade deadline has lost Hunter Harvey and Robert Garcia to trade and Tanner Rainey, Kyle Finnegan, and Jacob Barnes to free agency (though the latter two are still on the market). López was sneaky-good as a Cub after his ignominious exit from the Mets and will be helped out in the late innings by also-under-the-radar arms like Derek Law and Jose A. Ferrer, both coming off good seasons in their own rights.
Effect on Other Teams
There are still many, many relievers left to be signed, so I don’t think any teams are heartbroken to have missed out on López with so many arms still looking for homes.
Effect on Similar Players
Those remaining relievers will cover the whole spectrum of contract size, from potentially $50 million or more for Scott all the way down to minor league deals. Pitchers who could be looking to sign for deals similar to the one López received include other ex-closers like Craig Kimbrel, Ryne Stanek, and Adam Ottavino, all of whom are years removed from their peaks but still showed flashes at times in 2024.
Trades
Blue Jays Acquire Myles Straw, Cash ($3.75 million), International Bonus Pool Space ($2 million) from Guardians for PTBNL or Cash
• Updated Blue Jays Roster Projection
• Updated Blue Jays Payroll Projection
• Updated Guardians Roster Projection
• Updated Guardians Payroll Projection
Where the Blue Jays Go From Here
This trade has nothing to do with Straw (sorry, Myles). It has everything to do with the international bonus pool money, because the Jays are hoping use the additional $2 million to lure Roki Sasaki to Toronto.
The Blue Jays and Dodgers reportedly are the last teams standing in the Sasaki sweepstakes, and according to ESPN’s Alden González, Toronto now has roughly $8.3 million in its international bonus pool to spend, about $3 million more than the Dodgers currently have. This, of course, doesn’t mean the Japanese phenom will sign with the Jays. As González notes, Los Angeles could acquire more international bonus pool space. It’s also worth mentioning that money might not be the deciding factor for Sasaki. For example, he could prefer to sign with the Dodgers because their rotation already features Japanese stars Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who were his teammates in the 2023 World Baseball Classic.
Straw isn’t on the 40-man roster, so he’s not guaranteed a big league roster spot. That said, during camp he’ll have the chance to compete for some playing time at the beginning of the season, when the Blue Jays will be without starting center fielder Daulton Varsho, who is working his way back from shoulder surgery.
Where the Guardians Go From Here
The $11 million the Guardians are saving by dumping Straw would be significant for any team, but especially for one in a smaller market like Cleveland. The Guards could reinvest that money into someone who’d actually help their roster, perhaps — and these are just speculative names — a righty bat like Randal Grichuk or a veteran starter, such as Jose Quintana.
Rumors of the Week
• Everyone’s waiting on Sasaki; even the 28 teams who are out on Sasaki have vested interest in knowing where he goes. NL teams (NL West teams especially) would love for Sasaki to head to Toronto, and AL teams (AL East teams especially) would love for Sasaki to join the Dodgers.
That the Padres are out of the running for Sasaki is a pretty crushing blow for them considering their payroll inflexibility. They may now have to get especially creative to fortify their roster, which could use a corner outfielder, a designated hitter, and at least one more starting pitcher. The six years left on Jake Cronenworth’s contract may well be immovable, but perhaps the Padres could trade relievers Robert Suarez, Yuki Matsui, and Wandy Peralta to address some of the holes in their roster.
• The Winker signing, as noted above, was evidently done with the Mets believing that Alonso would be heading elsewhere, with the gap in contract talks too wide to bridge. Per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, the Mets’ final offer to Alonso before the pivot to Winker was for three years and between $68 and $70 million. The deal also included opt-outs, same as the deal Alonso offered the Mets a few days ago. Money, then, was the big sticking point, but the years won’t be. Any other teams interested in Alonso now know that they can get him without having to commit too many years to a player whose profile doesn’t age particularly well; whichever team signs him, though, would lose a draft pick because he rejected New York’s qualifying offer.
• On a parallel track with all the questions about Alonso are questions about Guerrero’s future. The latest from Rosenthal and Sammon states that while extension talks haven’t occurred since before the holidays, they should soon pick back up as Guerrero has set the deadline to get a deal done for February 17, the day of Toronto’s first spring training workout.
At this point, a Guerrero trade before the season looks highly unlikely. Per Rosenthal and Sammon, the Blue Jays would want a package exceeding what the Yankees sent to the Padres in December 2023 for Juan Soto. Whether the Jays bolster their lineup around Guerrero in the lineup remains to be seen, but even as they’ve come up empty in free agency thus far, their aggressiveness this offseason indicates they are doing everything they can to contend this season. And their odds for making the playoffs diminish considerably without Guerrero.
• While Alonso may be willing to take a short-term deal, that doesn’t appear to be in the cards for Alex Bregman, at least not right now. Bregman’s agent, Scott Boras, told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that teams still have “substantial interest” in signing Bregman to a long-term deal. The longer Bregman goes without signing, the less likely it is that he’ll get the deal he wants. That said, if what Boras said is true, Bregman’s eventual contract could still exceed the six-year, $156 million offer he turned down from the Astros. Of course, after having traded for Isaac Paredes and signing Christian Walker, Houston is no longer in the mix, but there are still teams out there who have a need at third base and could afford to give him a long-term deal, such as the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Tigers.
• The Blue Jays are looking at more than just the three notable free agents listed above. As Nightengale reported on Friday, Toronto is still in discussions with outfielder Anthony Santander. The right-handed slugger could slide over to left field with George Springer remaining in right and the elite glove of Varsho manning center whenever he’s healthy. Will Wagner was very good in his first major league stint last year, but he’s certainly not the established power threat that the Jays would get if they signed either Alonso or Santander.
